UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin is a self-proclaimed optimist, but even European football’s head honcho must find positivity in short supply as the coronavirus pandemic gradually suffocates football on the continent and across the world, with very little reprieve on the horizon.
Ceferin’s hope is that most European club seasons can be salvaged and space has been created in the calendar to allow that to happen, with the European Championship moved to the summer of 2021.
The ideal scenario is that domestic seasons can be accommodated while also squeezing the final stages of the Champions League and Europa League in before then beginning the 2020-21 season.
However, with governments struggling to deal with the virus, no vaccination arriving any time soon and experts sternly warning of the manifold health hazards associated with restarting sport too early, it is beginning to look increasingly unlikely that it can be done.
A chaotic scene has subsequently emerged in football in the fallout of the pandemic. Clubs are in the dark about how they should proceed and administrators are unable to provide decisive leadership, while players are naturally concerned about their health and that of their loved ones.
Ligue 1 was the first of Europe’s top five leagues to be officially cancelled, the French government ruling out major sporting events until September at the earliest. Of the rest, the Bundesliga has flirted with being the first to restart football, with authorities in Germany not ruling out a resumption some time in May - the exact date is unclear.
The Premier League in England is aiming for a date in early June and a number of teams have returned to training. There has been talk of testing players - both for the virus and for antibodies - and having them wear masks. Other bright ideas include disinfecting corner flags and footballs. It is all very optimistic.
However, the Mikel Arteta moment in March displayed that it only takes one positive diagnosis to puncture the illusion of safety. Need we be reminded that less than 24 hours after confirmation that the Arsenal boss had the coronavirus, the Premier League ground to a halt?
The richest league in the world has been postponed for over a month now since that breaking point. Is there any reason to think that it won't happen again? If it does, then what?
Getty Images
While national associations, UEFA and their various stakeholders are scrambling for solutions to get the game up and running in the next month or two, FIFA’s medical chief Dr Michel D’Hooghe has repeatedly expressed the preference for it to not happen so hastily, stating that leagues should instead aim towards beginning the 2020-21 season in September.
“If there is one circumstance where medical arguments should win against economical arguments, it is now,” Dr D’Hooghe told the Telegraph . “It is not a matter of money, it is a matter of life and death. It is very simple.”
Dr D'Hooghe's comments notably contradict the efforts of clubs, leagues and even UEFA, meaning that FIFA's de facto position - at least that of its medical advisers - is apparently at odds with many major players in the football ecosystem.
Should governments and associations permit football to go ahead, it then becomes a straight question of risk, which Gary Neville summed up in the bluntest of terms on the Sky Sports football podcast.
"How many people have to die playing football in the Premier League before it becomes unpalatable?" the former Manchester United captain mused. "One? One player? One member of staff goes into intensive care? What risk do we have to take? The discussion is purely economic."
It is easy to see why the risk is considered so severe, because there are so many moving parts in the playing of a single match. In this climate, when healthcare workers talk in fearful terms of viral clusters, it represents a major logistical headache before a ball is even kicked.
West Ham chief Karren Brady estimates over 300 people are involved in the staging of a game. Players, coaches, TV crews, journalists, ball boys and ball girls, and security teams all need to travel, either within a city or worse - in the case of the Champions League - between countries.
But then, once all those minor details are finally taken care of, as Brighton striker Glenn Murray wryly observed, “how do you social distance on a corner kick?”
It may seem absurd, but it is a question which genuinely troubles footballers. Manchester City striker Sergio Aguero, for example, admitted to being "scared" by the prospect of returning to play while there is no vaccine.
The Argentine told the El Chiringuito : “When we go back, I imagine that we will be very tense, we will be very careful, and the moment someone feels ill, you will think: ‘What's gone on there?’"
Getty
As alluded to by Neville, the pressure to restart professional football seasons as soon as possible is driven chiefly by economic interests and reticence about cancelling the season is completely understandable. Premier League clubs, for example, will reportedly have to pay back over £750 million ($945m) in TV money alone should the season come to a premature end.
The head of the Italian football association (FIGC), Gabriele Gravina, meanwhile, has dramatically claimed that cancelling the remainder of the season "would be the death of Italian football", citing the various commitments worth hundreds of millions of euro that are in place with 'international partners'.
No doubt the same force fuels the UEFA president Ceferin's tendency towards optimism on the matter. Billions of euro are entwined in the successful completion of the Champions League.
Over €2 billion (£1.7bn/$2.1bn) was to be distributed among clubs playing in the 2019-20 Champions League based on performance and the TV market pool pot alone is worth just under €300 million (£260m/$330m).
UEFA's vast revenue comes from various sources. As well as TV deals, some of the world's biggest multinational corporations - including Heineken, Gazprom and PepsiCo - have invested hefty sums in return for reaching millions of eyes during games. If those games don't happen, those eyes aren't reached and UEFA could find itself in trouble.
It is a gloomy prospect for all involved and the tremors are being felt sharply throughout the game.
At this point, with over six weeks of the calendar lost, there is no ideal solution, but the chaos which is currently gripping European football will be exacerbated the longer uncertainty reigns.
It's why UEFA needs to act decisively and work towards starting fresh in 2020-21, when there is more harmony and greater safety across Europe.
Competitions could indeed restart earlier than anticipated only for a wave of coronavirus cases to pull up the brakes, meaning more time squandered. The more time spent on reviving the current campaign, the more it eats into the next.
Admirable as attempts to salvage the 2019-20 season are, time is running out and impatient optimism will not help to expedite the return of football. It could even have the opposite effect.